Thursday, October 27, 2011

Reverberations/Effects of NBA Lock out?

1) As the NBA (yawn, ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ) lock out continues many have inquired to us and other bloggers/hockey writers as to the impact on the current NBA stalemate to the NHL.

  • What parallels can be made to the potential NHL CBA soon to be expired?

  • What are the ramifications of the eventual settlement there?

  • Does it benefit the NHL to have NBA arenas dark?

2) I'll answer the last question first. Simply, no, or minimally. Especially right now with the World Series and NFL going full blazes sports stations that usually ignore or give minimal coverage to the NHL(ESPN) haven't changed their policies or increased their coverage/interest to make up for the lack of showing 50 boring layup/dunks nightly. Now, that could change IF the NBA season is either cancelled or the lockout continues after the Super Bowl (both unlikely scenarios)

3) The parallels and ramifications questions I'll take together. There are absolutely parallels here. We contacted a source on the players side who said definitively that they expect the owners to make their share the primary issue. Much like the NBA is trying to reduce the players share of the pie, so will the NHL owners insist that the players slice of the pie be reduced from its current 57% to a "more equal" 50(or less if they can pull it off). The difference lies in the fact that the NBA does NOT have a hard cap. There are numerous/intentional loop holes built into their system. Some of which the NBA owners are trying to eliminate that don't exist in the NHL CBA.

4) The biggest possible ramification will be the outcome. The NHL owners would certainly feel more emboldened to crack the whip if the NBA owners eventually win their standoff; showing the NHL players that if the NBA, which is MUCH stronger economically, needs to make adjustments then certainly the NHL its MUCH weaker sister sports league needs to do the same to stay economically sound/competitive. Our sources tell us to expect the NBA players to start to get antsy for resolution very soon when the first pay cheque is missed(mid November). From there the owners' advantage just gains momentum. "Billionaires can outlast millionaires indefinitely" is how one league source put it. Donald Fehr can bloviate all he wants (so far he's been mute) but in the end Gary Bettman 'has hand', and no doubt is prepared to use it. Another well placed source tells us the NHL "players better be prepared to get spanked" in this next go around. Another 25% across the board reduction will be on the table.

No comments:

Contact the Media