Saturday, November 22, 2014

Week 7 Picks



1) We are at the quarter poll of the NHL season. hard to imagine how fast things seem to be flying by here.  We will have our annual season's projection posting early next week of course, but today its all about the picks. A busy day/evening in the NHL as 13 games are scheduled. No word if the sabres were able to dig out of Buffalo to get to DC for tonight's game/ Regardless, we will pick it here any way. Our record coming into tonight's action through 6 weeks is  48-24 for a .667 winning %

St. Louis at Ottawa:  Senators

Montreal at Boston: Bruins

 Buffalo at Washington: Capitals (Lock of The Week)

 Detroit at Toronto:Maple Leafs

 Minnesota at Tampa Bay: Lightning

 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders: Islanders

 Columbus at Philadelphia: Flyers

 Florida at Nashville: Predators

 Los Angeles at Dallas:Stars

 Carolina at Colorado: Avalanche

 New Jersey at Calgary: Flames

 Chicago at Edmonton: Black hawks

 Arizona at San Jose: Sharks

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

"Loonie" Will Determine Cap?


1) The dirty little secret that few, if any were talking about until recently is the direct and significant tie the NHL revenue windfall had to do with the elevation of the Canadian dollar.  We at Fauxrumrs have been WAY out in front of this for years! Here is a post SIX YEARS ago on this very subject:
http://newfaux.blogspot.com/2008/10/significant-shrinkage.html

2) Although that 'shrinkage was only minimal and temporary, and largely mitigated by other "revenue  enhancements" like 50 out door games a season. The current downward tregectary of the 'Loonie' appears to be a more permanent situation, and as a recent article sited here suggests:--->
 http://metronews.ca/voices/how-to-roll-canadian-investment-advice/1175200/bad-news-for-the-loonie-the-canadian-dollar-plunge-will-likely-continue/
it could go back to where it traditionally has been, in the 80% range. FAR from its al time high of $1.10 from 7 years ago.  It could even plummet to .70 or lower!!

3) So I'm sure more than one of you are asking, "why should we care about Canada's currency value"?  Simple.  If teams north of the border are getting revenues locally with a depressed currency, BUT have to pay players in US dollars they are at a 10-20% disadvantage over their US counterparts and that translates into LESS revenue. Less revenue= smaller salary cap/payroll!  For the past 18 months we were hearing that the new TV deals along with out door games, etc would help to sky rocket the cap ceiling to as high as 80 or even 90 million in 3-4 seasons or less  The current cap is 69 mil. Which is already less than most thought it was going to be only 6 months prior! 

4) Our sources within the league and elsewhere tell us its very likely that due to the CN dollar plunge that the cap will remain  essentially stagnant for the next season or two.  A FAR cry from what we were hearing only a short 12 months ago. GM's across the league felt that the belt tightening they had to endure post Bettman lockout #3 would ease and they could start to spend more easily. I'm sure big spending teams like Chicago, NY and Philly are none too happy. With the Towes/Kane insane deals (10.5 mil each) set to commence next year its possible the Hawks will again have to shed payroll, ala the Leddy trade earlier this fall.  They aren't alone there!

5) The other potential fallout is expansion. We wrote recently that Quebec would be a no brainer to expand to. They have a ready made arena soon to be ready and a rabid fan base eager for a return of NHL hockey. BUT, a plunging loonie would make that less profitable, and less attractive to the league in general. Would the expansion fee be in CN or US dollars?  You can bet it would be in green backs, so the potential owners would be defacto penalized 10-20% on a franchise fee, as opposed to a Vegas or Seattle franchise.  Also existing smaller market teams, already struggling, like the Oilers, Jets, and Flames would have their bottom lines cut by the continued exchange rate disrepency. Might we see a return of The NHL's small market assistance plan, known as the
Canadian Assistance Plan [CAP]? If that happens, one insider told us, you can bet things are getting very bad and contraction, NOT expansion might be necessary. We are NOT anywhere near that....yet!

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Week 6 Results

1) Week 6 is complete. We had an outstanding day/night, going an impressive 10-2!  That brings our season-long total to 48-24 for a .667 winning %!  We doubt we'll be able to maintain that pace all season, but we'll give it a shot!   Also we kept our 'lock' pick record unblemished. Now at 6-0!  We of course will be right back here next Saturday for week 7 when a whopping 13 games will be on the NHL docket!
We are planning a post this week concerning next year's salary cap and the Canadian dollar situation/implications!
As always, keep it here for all the latest!!

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Week 6 Picks


1) As we roll towards the NHL quarter poll we enter week 6 of the NHL season.  As we had last week, 12 games are to be decided today/night.  We bring our 38-22 for a .633 winning % record into the day and try to improve on it with the following picks.


Carolina at Boston: Bruins  (Lock of the Week)

Minnesota at Dallas:Stars

Anaheim at Los Angeles: Kings

Toronto at Buffalo: Maple Leafs

Philadelphia at Montreal: Habitants

NY Islanders at Tampa Bay: Lightning

Colorado at New Jersey: Avalanche

Rangers at Pittsburgh: Penguins

San Jose at Columbus: Blue Jackets

Winnipeg at Nashville: Predators

Washington at St. Louis: Blues

Ottawa at Calgary: Flames

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Holy Hossa! Six More Years!?!



1) That's the response we got when we reminded Chicago Black hawk fans that their (once-?) super star under achieving Slovak forward has an additional 6 seasons AFTER this one with his 5.25 cap hit. Thus far he has a whopping 2 goals and 7 points in 15 games. Now to be fair few Hawks are tearing up the score sheet, and Hossa has probably paid for his deal with his post season heroics, helping Chicago greatly to win 2 Cups in his 5+ seasons. However, we live in a 'what have you done for me lately?, world and no team can thrive having one of its offensive leaders score (protracted over 82 games)7 goals/25 points!

2) It is always difficult to tell what is a slump and what might be age-related decline. In this case its way too early to tell, but at 36, with lots of miles on him, it wouldn't be premature to make that part of the discussion. Especially if this 'slump' continues. Thankfully  for the Hawks he is one of the few who doesn't have a no movement clause and with the front loaded deal paying him 7.9 mil this year but only 1 mil the last 4 years of his 12 year contract he might be movable for a team looking to add salary cap without salary!

3)  It will be interesting to see how the next few months play out here. One Eastern scout says that his team would be very interested in adding Hossa despite the current slump as long as the asking price wasn't too ridiculous. It would be unusual for a Cup contending team to off load salary before the playoffs, but it may be a wise choice with the Towes/Kane contracts coming on line next season for the Hawks to make some space available to fill the roster and maybe get something decent in return for Marion.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Free to Blog? Thank A Vet!!

1) As we like to remind readers: "Besides:


  • Ending Communism

  • Ending Slavery

  • Saving the world from Totalitarianism Fascism and Terrorism


War never solved a thing?!?"

Sunday, November 9, 2014

Week 5 Results

1) Week 5 is complete.  For the day/night we went a solid 8-4 to bring the 5 week totals to 38-22 for a .633 winning %. Additionally we got our 'Lock' correct to bring that stat to 5-0.   We of course will be back at it again next Saturday when another 12 games are scheduled.  Additionally look for a possible post about some serious trade discussions going on.
As always, keep it here for all the latest!!
 
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