
Monday, July 21, 2008
End Of The Rookie Salary Cap?

Friday, July 18, 2008
Burke's Secret Destination?
1) We usually are not ones to listen to the Toronto media. In fact we usually read what they say and believe that the exact opposite is the likely reality of a situation. However with regard to the Brian Burke to Toronto rumours we believe that 'where there is smoke there is fire' argument may have merit.2) Just too many coincidences are occurring to ignore. To refresh the memories/educate the folks who may not recall:
- Brian Burke is the current GM of the Anaheim Ducks. He successfully orchestrated the team to a cup win in 2007.
- His current contract with the Ducks has one year remaining and has yet to sign an extension that the ownership supposedly offered him this past spring.
- The Maple Leafs fired their GM, John Ferguson Jr, (JFJ) this past winter. It was widely rumoured that Burke was in line for the position.
- When Burke was 'unavailable', or so we were told, the Leafs hired Cliff Fletcher to be the 'interim' GM until a permanent individual could be hired in the off season.
- Burke states that he will live up to his contract (one more year) then decide what he will do from there.
- Toronto announces that Fletcher will stay on as GM through the 2008-09 season.
3) It doesn't take a rocket scientist to deduce the possibilities here. That Burke will finish up another season in southern California. Allow Fletcher to do the dirty work of unloading the bloated contracts that JFJ signed, and begin the rebuild. Then after next season the Leafs can hire Burke to come on and finish the process of rebuilding the troubled Toronto franchise like he did with Anaheim.
4) This is not to say that this is written in stone. In fact we were at first dubious of this. We are told repeatedly that Burke is one of the brightest minds in the game today. (He'll tell you himself if you ask) Despite his gruff/abrasive style, he is very well liked and regarded in NHL circles.(Outside of Edmonton) However, IF Burke is that smart, why in hell would he want to come to the ever-dysfunctional franchise/media circus in Toronto? Is it all an ego trip? Who could ask for a better situation that what he has now? He lives/works in Southern California. He's already won, so the pressure is minimal. He's making very good money. Why turn this away for a chance to be in the middle ring of the media circus that is Toronto?
5) Our sources tell us: "Yes, it IS about Burke's ego here. He wants to be the one to do something no one has done in over 40 years". That is, bring a Cup back to Canada's biggest city. A feat that would guarantee Burke hockey immortality. A place in hockey lore forever more! If this is true we would then have to lower our regard for the man. After all, to pull your family out of an ideal circumstance, back to the cold winters, into a high stress environment, and especially into the microscope they will be under, would be a poor decision in our opinion. Stay tuned. The wheels appear to be moving in this direction.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
To Russia With Love?

1) Many are asking themselves, "Is the new Russian Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) a real threat to the NHL? Many including our friend over at The puckstopshere think it is. We will attempt to wade through the hype both real and trumped up and the realities of this fledgling rival to the NHL's prowess on the world stage.
2) So what IS the KHL? Well its really not a new hockey league. Its merely an ambitious expansion of the existing Russian elite league. A few Russian oil barons/entrepreneurs got together and decided to rename/expand the league and give it a new flashy name to try to compete with the NHL and other European elite leagues for talent.
3) Firstly, what are some of the advantages that the new KHL have over the NHL?
- Tax free income- This is a huge incentive. Imagine adding an additional 30%(or more) on top of your salary? Taxes have kept/dissuaded players from playing in Canada, especially Quebec in the past, so its no surprise that this could be a nice incentive for players to earn nice pay and avoid the tax man
- Shorter season- The KHL is slated to have 56 games in its initial season. Significantly shorter than the 82 game marathon the NHL currently employs. The long season then potentially long playoffs takes its toll physically on players. To be able to cut their season by a 1/3 or more and make good money at the same time is a nice bonus
- Russians and some Euros might feel less home sick playing at home. This is certainly a huge factor for Russian born players. Imagine leaving your home at age 18 to work where you know little of the language and culture. In stead you are given a chance to stay home where your family and friends are, and still make about the same money? The KHL is trying to use Russian nationalism to try to lure players to stay and play in 'Mother Russia'
- Big Russian oil money: This is the underlying engine that is driving the Russian economy these days. When the price of oil collapsed in the late 80's the USSR died with it. The surge in oil has fueled the economy and more importantly lined the pockets of a few elite 'businessmen/corrupt politicians/Russian mob bosses, etc. These are the folks who by and large own the teams that make up the KHL. Its their diversion/past time from their other 'activities'.
4) Possible disadvantages:
- Hard to attract top flight North American-born talent to play abroad. Few players in their primes will willingly leave the comfort of home to play where English is not spoken, and the creature comforts we take for granted are not wide spread. If Eric Lindros thought Quebec city wasn't a place to live,work and raise a family, how many top North American born NHL players will want to go to obscure/smaller Russian cities to live and work?
- Huge amount of travel. If you thought going from LA to NY was brutal (2,800 miles), try going from Amur Khabarovsk to Dinamo Riga (4,500 miles!) The other KHL teams are also spread far apart so to be 'on a long road trip' may have a new meaning in Russia.
- Piss-poor facilities: Some of these arenas we're told are in very poor shape. Ice conditions are worse than a typical hot day in MSG (not good). NHL players who are accustomed to the best of the best will be in for a rude awakening when they have to practice in facilities where they are sharing a bathroom with the general public. LOL
- Russia is still a 3rd world country. (See above) The many creature comforts even those of us working class people take for granted are hard to come by in Russia of 2008. There isn't a Home Depot/Circuit City/ Target, etc on every corner like we see here in the US. These guys may have money, but being rich in a poor country has its distinct disadvantages.
- Teams owned by crooks/mafia/corrupt politicians: Sure that sounds like the NHL, but in reality there is no comparison to the rampant corruption over in the old Soviet Union. Many players who went over there to play during the last Bettman lockout got stiffed millions of dollars. With many judges in the back pockets of these oil barons/Russian mafia, etc owners these players have no recourse to recoup that cash, so folks going over there to get rich better keep their eyes on their wallets and ask for the cash up front!
5) So how does the KHL stack up so far? Well many made a big deal over the signing of former Ranger Jaromir Jagr to Avangard Omsk. While it made a nice headline it hardly signals a trend that has the NHL shaking in their boots. So who else is going over there?
- • G Ray Emery, Ottawa Senators to Atlant Mytishchi (KHL)• F Josef Vasicek, Islanders to Lokomotiv Yaroslavl (KHL) • )• F Stefan Ruzicka, Philadelphia Flyers to Spartak Moscow (KHL) • F Marcel Hossa, Phoenix Coyotes to Dinamo Riga (KHL) • G Wade Dubielewicz, Islanders to Ak Bars Kazan (KHL)• F Martin Straka, Rangers to HCL Plzen (CZE) • D Jon Klemm, Los Angeles Kings to Straubing Tigers (DEL)
- If your a follower of the NHL you probably won't miss any of the folks not named Jagr. As for JJ, sure he could still be considered a top NHL player, but he's not the same dominating force he was even 2-3 years ago. He will be missed, but even Jagr will admit it was his plan all along to 'retire from the NHL' with a deal in Europe. While we won't sugar coat his loss to the NHL, we believe his departure will NOT cause an avalanche of younger players to leave to play in Russia either
6) What might cause the KHL to become a true NHL rival?
- If the NHL salary cap begins to contract. Not expecting this any time soon. In fact it'll probably continue is drift higher at least for the next 2 years, up to nearly 60-65 million. However if: a) the US economy truly goes into recession(it hasn't as of this date) b) the CN dollar shrinks to its early 90 levels c) Oil stays or goes even higher then its conceivable that the NHL won't increase its income, and it could deflate causing the subsequent cap to go down. Thus making the KHL more attractive to high end talent
- If there is any new work stoppage in the NHL. This clearly could happen in 4 years when this CBA expires. We won't go into the details, but we at FAUXRUMORS are on record predicting another work stoppage as owners attempt to end guaranteed contracts. This could flood the KHL with players fleeing the NHL for work. You could even see substantial North American born/trained players go to Europe/Russia to continue their careers as the NHL is locked out yet again.
7) How can the KHL can start to attract top players in their primes? We believe that our above negative factors will continue to seriously dissuade top/impact players from defecting to the KHL. (The Radulov situation still is unresolved as of this printing) However if the previous 2 'causes' occur then we could finally see a shift of significant talent resources to Europe/Russia and at that time, and that time only would we pronounce the KHL as a true rival league. Until then, they are mere annoyance and a refuge for the lesser/older player.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Nolan Tossed Off Island!

- The Isles are now without a coach. Many chastised the Kings for waiting until June to fire Crawford and then name a new coach. The Isles felt they had to out do the Kings in idiocy by waiting 3 full months to decide to replace Nolan. Why the wait? Only Wang and Snow know for sure and they will only be spinning drivel blaming Nolan that he wasn't going to be on board with the new youth movement, etc. We have a feeling Nolan would be 'on board' if he was given assurances of being with the team beyond this season (a contract extension was a must!) Given that his tenure was, well tenuous, we can't blame Nolan for fearing that his next/last season with the Isles would be a bottom finish and thus wasn't keen on having such an inexperienced lineup to work with.
- Meanwhile we don't believe the hype of these 'kids'. Other than Okposo none impress us as being a future star player in the league. We saw a bottom 5 finish this season for the Isles, and this move only cements this viewpoint. They rid themselves of one of their better assets in Nolan. The team will probably hire a very desperate/loyal AHL coach that they will sell to the fans as the perfect candidate to 'coach the kids'. Or hire former super star Brian Trottier in a clear PR move to save face. Who could boo a living legend like Trotts?
- For Nolan its definitely too late to find work as a head coach, but he may find work as a teams' asst if he chooses, or wait until the inevitable first firing and wait for the phone to ring. If another team/GM is smart they will have Nolan's number on speed dial. Nolan is a legit/good NHL coach who deserved/deserves better. The Isles do not!
Friday, July 11, 2008
Less Is More?

1) This is apparently the case with regard to games played for a team's starting/#1 goalie. When we were discussing possible topics to discuss during the doldrums of the summer, a few of us at The FAUXRUMORS Group, LLC. got into a discussion about the merits of playing your top goalie as much as has become almost a regular occurrence these days. We discussed for instance if the Devils would have done better if Brodeur would have been rested more often?
2) In fact, with the origination of the salary cap, teams are more and more carrying only 1 top quality goalie for a good salary and a very cheap back up to save cap space. Seldom do we see a split between 2 goalies like we saw regularly 25 years ago. Nowadays, playing 65-70 or more games by the top goalie is common place, but is it a good strategy to employ?
3) Our discussion was prompted by the Red Wings recent Cup run with Chris Osgood. He wasn't really a true/prototype #1 goalie that many teams possess. In fact he wasn't even the #1 going into the post season. We figured it would be interesting to see if this was the exception or not. What we found surprised us. With the exception of Martin Brodeur (earlier in his career) it seems that teams have success (win the Cup) when they have a goalie that plays under 60 games. We went back the past 5 years to see if this premise held.
- 2007-2008: Western Conference champs goalie (Osgood) 43 games/ East(Fleury) 35 games played
- 2006-2007: Western Conference champs goalie (Giguere) 56 games/ East (Emery) 58 games played
- 2005-2006: Western Conference champs goalie (Roloson) 43 games/ East (Ward) 28 games played
- 2004-2005: Bettman Lockout.
- 2003-2004: Western Conference champs goalie (Kiprusoff) 39 games/ East (Khabibulin)55 games played
4) The next question is do teams take this bit of information and try to alter their teams' future strategy? We are already on record stating that the Devils made a mistake playing Brodeur so much the last 2 seasons as he has looked 'tired' and not nearly as sharp from playing so much. (77 and 78 games respectively) However teams like New Jersey and Vancouver, etc are in a catch 22 situation. They rely so heavily on their goalie to carry them, that playing him less could result in missing the post season entirely. Eventually we believe teams will begin to re-think their strategy in this regard and possibly have to set aside more resources to retain more than one quality goalie. Allowing them to rest their #1 so he is ready to face the immense 2 month long pressure cooker that is the Stanley Cup playoffs
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Ray Bolts To Russia

Monday, July 7, 2008
As the Dust Settles.....

1) We at FAUXRUMORS were tempted to chime in the last few days with a post concerning how we feel teams fared this free agent signing season. Certainly in some circles even today 7 days into the fray its too early to make any firm conclusions, but we feel enough of the big names have been signed, and the bigger deals have already been consummated to make some conclusions about who in fact bettered themselves, and who are now weaker than they were at the end of the 2007-08 season.
2) First, the teams we feel clearly improved their chances going into the 2008-09 season compared to where they were at season's end. The winners:
- Chicago- The rebuild/transformation of the Blackhawks will be one of the bigger stories this next season in our opinion. Only a year removed from the black death that was the William Wirtz ownership, the team now can be looked upon as one of the more exciting teams to keep an eye on. A familiar refrain we expect to hear is they will be 'the Capitals of this season'. The addition of big time offensive defenseman Brian Campbell to go with their impressive array of young guns will make their PP a deadly weapon. Adding dependable Huet and hopefully for them the trade of underachieving goalie Khabibulin will mean the Hawks will reemerge back from the dead, and possibly back to the post season. They will need to jettison Nikolai to avoid a divided club house. They probably won't get much in return, and at his salary their are probably few who can take him, but despite this we feel the folks in Chicago will enjoy a renaissance of hockey the Windy City hasn't seen in over a decade!
- Tampa Bay- They started the off-season by extending the contract of super star Vinny Lecavlier. Removing the silly Montreal rumors (they won't end there ofcourse). Next ownership/Jay Feaster went out and got pro-active and signed Ryan Malone, Vaclav Prospal, and Gary Roberts, before any were even on the market. Then to cement these moves the added Radim Vrbata, David Koci and Adam Hall, to round out their forwards and goalie Olaf Kolzig to add some veteran leadership/depth to the thin goalie position. We especially like the addition of Koci who give the Bolts a true heavy weight enforcer to help deter those taking liberties with its offensive stars. We still are not sold on their defense/goaltending as being Cup calibre, but Add these moves to the drafting of Stamkos, the folks of the Florida Bay area should be excited to see hockey return this fall!
- Pittsburgh- Their biggest moves were to get their own people resigned. Getting Malkin and Fleury signed long term to relatively reasonable cap-friendly deals it allowed Ray Shero to make other moves to bolster his team going into next season. In addition to those deals, Shero went out and got/retained Pascal Dupuis, Mark Eaton, Eric Godard, Brooks Orpik, Miroslav Satan, Ruslan Fedotenko, and Matt Cooke. We feel the additions of the former Islanders Satan and Fedotenko along with Cooke will give the pens a nice veteran feel they may have been missing. Godard will bring toughness (at a lesser cap cost) in the absence of the departed Laraque. The key, as it always is, can Fleury give them the type of goaltending he provided in the post season, over the long haul? Sabourin is highly touted, but can't be expected to carry the load like Conklin did last season when Fleury went down. Still, we believe the Pens should be right there again next season!
- Detroit- The rich get richer? This certainly applies in the case of the reigning champion, Red wings. They added the free agent cream of the crop in Marion Hossa. Not only did they add him, but got him at a big discount of 7.4 million, and only to one season. It looks like Marion wants to sip champagne next spring, not watch others do it. They also got another former Penguin, Ty Conklin to augment their goal tending with Osgood. The two are well regarded, but combined only will cost the Wings a cap hit of 2.4 million! (Compared with Chicago's 12.3) They also retained the services of defenders Brad Stuart and Andreas Lilja who both seemed to come into their own this season in Mo-town. All in all we would have to say the Wings of 2008-09, baring injury/Cup hangovers should be every bit as good as this past year's squad!
3) Next, the teams, in our opinion, who have decreased their chances going into the 2008-09 season compared to where they were at season's end. The losers:
- Montreal- The Habs were relatively quiet on the signing front. The added tough guy Georges Laraque to address the team toughness issue highlighted in the Flyer series, but the lost defensemen/PP specialist Mark Streit. Gainey did resign star forward Andrei Kostitsyn to a multi year deal removing him from offer sheet eligibility. Still Habs fans must be wondering about their team's strategy. They will be relying heavily on another season from a 36 year old Alex Kovalev, 35 year old Hamrlik, and 34 year old Saku Koivu along with 2nd year goalie Carey Price to get them back into the post season.
- Toronto- The (now permanent-?) GM Cliff Fletcher tried to add by subtracting. Erasing Kyle Wellwood, Darcy Tucker, Andrew raycroft from the payroll (still trying with McCabe). However the void left by the departing captain, Matts Sundin is gaping to say the least. Jason Blake will have to seriously return to his 40 goal form if the Leafs are to have any chance at returning to the playoffs. They over paid in our opinion to acquire former Av's defensemen Jeff Finger. 4 years 3.5 million a lot to pay, but the folks in TO are used to that and losing by now. We don't see any reason to believe that will change in 08-09.
- Rangers- They may have replaced the likes of Jagr, Avery, Straka and Shanahan with Naslund, and Zherdev, but that in our opinion leave a big leadership/toughness gap that we feel will be evident. Sure Naslund could return to his form of 5 years ago, and the enigmatic Zherdev might become a real star in Manhattan, but we don't see it. For all the hoopla about the big acquisition of Redden, many forget he wasn't even the best defender in Ottawa the past 2 years, and he hardly has played up to his salary in the process. The burden will be even more heavy on King Henrik this next season. He will need to play at a season long Vezina caliber to get the Blueshirts into the post season. Also much more will be expected from the 'kids' like Staal, Dubinsky,Callahan, Girardi, etc.
- Colorado- Any team that has as its top goalies Andrew Raycroft and Peter Budaj can't feel confident. A year ago we felt Budaj had the potential to be a #1 goalie, but lost his starters job to the departed Theodore. Raycroft hardly inspires, as he is 4 years removed from his last good season. Kicked to the curb by the Leafs. A few weeks ago we wondered if re-signing Jose at big bucks would be worth the gamble, now that seems like it would have been the better move. One has to wonder if there was a falling out with Colorado and the former Hab? They also lost Finger to Toronto, and were forced to pay big bucks to keep Liles and Foote. The former getting a huge 4 year 4.2 mil deal. Faced with the possible losses of Sakic and Forsberg, the addition of Tucker hardly makes us confident the denizens of Denver wil be back in the playoffs in 08-09.
3) This is hardly a final grade on these and the other 22 non-mentioned teams, but with most teams already with their rosters set, barring a trade the bigger moves have already taken place. There are only 2 players remaining who could alter the landscape a bit. Matts Sundin and to a lesser extent Pavol Demitra. After that the list gets thin. Teams with significant additional cap space to add one(or both) (after signing their own RFA's)
- Vancouver - 12 million
- Phoenix- 14 million
- Islanders 15 million
- Nashville 10 million
- Montreal 8 million
- LA- 15 million
- Columbus 10 million
- Atlanta- 15 million
4) Of those we wouldn't expect to see much movement from NY and Phoenix, but LA and Atlanta may try to land Demitra, and its been widely rumoured that the Canucks are hot after Sundin. With the loss of Naslund the Canucks will need to add some offense else they will be on our 'losers' list.
Editors note: We now are in what we call at FAUXRUMORS the no mans land of hockey news. The draft and main wheeling/dealing of the UFA period is over. Some deals will certainly occur, but they will be much further and fewer between. We at FAUXRUMORS will continue to bring you hard hitting news, rumours and commentary like no blog can/does. As always, keep it hear for all the latest!