Thursday, April 28, 2011

Second Round Predictions

1) On to the second round. With so many Game 7 series there is no layoff of any kind. Which is a very good idea. In years past sometimes there have been as many as 5 days between rounds. Giving fans alternative things to pay attention to in the spring months. Anyway on to our prediction for the 4 series set to commence today and tomorrow. First the West.

  • No. 1 Vancouver vs. No. 5 Predators. If this series too place 3 weeks ago most would have given the nod to the canucks, but after barely surviving an opening round scare the 'Nucks look vulnerable. The defense first Preds are not a good matchup for the Canucks. We can see them exploiting the Vancouver defense and shaky Luongo to steal the series. Predators in 6

  • No. 2 San Jose vs. No. 3 Detroit Don't let the seeding fool ya here. this is the biggest mismatch of the second round! The playoff hardened Wings playing at their best against the confidence brittle Sharks who barely survived beating a very weak Kings team. Just when you thought it was safe to watch playoff hockey again Shark fans..... Redwings in 5

  • No. 1 Washington vs. No. 5 Tampa Bay. Many are stating the Caps are a new team now. However despite winning a first round decisively(finally) we don't see it that way. They had quite a few breaks to win against a very weak Ranger team and their 'issues' are far from solved. Even new team captain Jason Arnott will not be enough to keep the high flying Lightning from lighting up the Caps. Lightning in 6

  • No. 2 Philadelphia vs. No. 3 Boston. Both teams barely survived the opening round. Both were mentioned as preseason Cup favourites but both have shown significant chinks in their armour. The Flyers in net and Bruins in the anemic special teams. This will probably be another long/epic series, much like last year with a similar outcome, although for bruins fans' sake hopefully not another epic collapse. Flyers in 7

1st Round Post Mortem

1) We have to say that the NHL first round proved to be one of the most exciting opening rounds in years. So much intrigue, 7 game series and 2 that went to the ultimate, 7th game OT to decide the eventual series winner. First we will see where we stacked up with our predictions the we will weight in on what we see happening in the next round(which starts this evening in Vancouver)


  • Vancouver (1) -vs- Chicago (8): Original prediction Canucks in 6. Actual outcome Caunucks in 7 (OT) For full disclosure we weren't too keen on Vancouver going into game 6 after consecutive big defeats, but to their credit the canucks/Luongo rebounded and staved off/eliminated the defending champs

  • San Jose (2) vs. No. 7 Los Angeles (7): Original prediction Sharks in 5. Actual outcome Sharks in 6. No big shocker overall here. The Sharks beat a depleted Kings team and advance to the 2nd round, but Shark fans shouldn't get too excited that they had to struggle so much against an anemic offense like LA

  • Detroit(3) vs. Phoenix (6): Original prediction Redwings in 5. Actual outcome Wings in 4. The 'Yotes played as well as they probably could, yet fell relatively easily to Detroit. The Wings appear to be humming along on all cylinders. Beware Sharks!

  • Anaheim (4) vs. Nashville (5) Original prediction Preds in 6. Actual outcome Preds in 7. As we said in the outset both very good teams that its ashame 1 had to lose in the 1st round, but the preds prevailed and gained confidence winning their first playoff round in their history!

  • Capitals(1) vs. NY Rangers(8) Original prediction Rangers in 6. Actual outcome Caps in 5. Our worst showing. The caps and their new (defacto) captain Jason Arnott(along with the other Jason-Chimera, proved to be difference makers. We're still not sold on the Caps but kuddos to their win against a weak offensive team in NY

  • Philadelphia (2) vs. Buffalo (7) Original Prediction Flyers in 7. Actual outcome, Flyers in 7. This series pretty much went exactly as predicted. Down to the Flyers goaltending woes being at issue, but their overall depth everywhere else enough to overcome the Sabres

  • Canadiens (6) vs. Bruins(3): Original prediction Bruins in 7. Actual outcome, Bruins in 7(in OT). Another series that went pretty much as expected. The Habs pushed the B's as far as they could, but lost out in the end. No Cinderella dance in Montreal this year(and no downtown mayhem ; )

  • Penguins (4) vs Lightning (5): Original prediction penguins in 7. Actual outcome Lightning in 7. We are impressed how the Bolts returned from the dead(down 3 games to 1) Winning 2 at Concel Energy center to win a series few predicted they had a chance to win. Pens without their 2 best stars still pushed a star laden Lightning team to the brink, but couldn't get over the hump last night, getting blanked by 54 year old Dwayne Roloson

3) Overall out of 8 series we got the correct winner in 6 of them. Not too shabby. Next up, look for our second round predictions. Should be out later today along with an interesting piece on the caps' 'New Captain"

Friday, April 22, 2011

Half Way Home-First Round Analysis

1) Its about 1/2 way through the Conference Quarter Finals and we figured this would be a good time to see how each series is progressing:

  • Vancouver (1) -vs- Chicago (8): We predicted Canucks in 6. Right now the boys from Vancouver are reeling a bit after consecutive devastating losses that have brought the hawks back into a series that few thought would go far after the Canucks dismantled the hawks i the first 3 games. It would be a monumental collapse but after witnessing their lack of fight in games 4 and 5, we wouldn't be shocked to see this go 7

  • San Jose (2) vs. Los Angeles (7): We have seen the Kings fall apart in game 3 sealing their eventual fate. Most including us didn't see this as being a long series and after last nights tidy Shark win we anticipate the Sharks dispatching the Kings and moving on to the second round

  • Detroit(3) vs. Phoenix (6): No big surprise here. We have Detroit as our Cup favourite so winning quickly didn't shock us or most hockey procrastinators. The biggest unknown is whether Game 4 was the final NHL hockey to be played in the desert. from what we have been told its a mere formality that the 'Yotes will once again be the Winnipeg Jets and that Gary Bettman will make the announcement once the entire first round is completed

  • Anaheim (4) vs. Nashville (5) While most predicted a long series, most also saw the the Ducks as the eventual winner. Both teams are so evenly matched that an epic 7 game series is all but assured here. we'll stick with our original prediction that the Preds will win, but it is really a coin toss and we wouldn't want to play the winner in the next round

  • Capitals(1) vs. NY Rangers(8): This is possibly the one series that we may have been off the mark. we saw the Blueshirts in 6 and that won't happen now with the caps winning three of the first 4 games, 2 in OT. The 3 gaols collapse may have sealed their fate in NY and ruined our prediction of rangers in 6 in the process. However the Caps were in this position last season and blew it so don't write the Rangers off quite yet

  • Philadelphia (2) vs. Buffalo (7) This series is transpiring right as we expected. Its tough, and each teams strenghts and deficiencies apparent. For the Flyers they (STILL!) have goaltending issues with 'Bob' chased from the starters role in favour of journeymen Boucher. However in the end the Flyers superior scoring depth should be sufficient to win 2 of the next 3 games, but Mr's Holmgren/Laviolette have to be concerned about their backstop(s)

  • Canadiens (6) vs. Bruins(3): Both teams have won 2 in their opposing teams' building. At times it looked like the Bruins were going to fold their tent and loss a quick series to the habs, but a gutty showing in hostile Montreal have buoyed our belief that our original prediction of Bruins in 7 will be accurate.

  • Penguins (4) vs Lightning (5): Even we are surprised how the offensively depleted Pens are relatively easily dispatching the Lightning. Yes we thought they'd win in the end, but not in a quick fashion that it now appears they are poised to accomplish. Kuddos to our Jack Adams pick, Dan Blysma and his team to overcome the obstacle of losing not 1, but 2 super stars and winning. If one or both were healthy they'd be our Cup favourite

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

2011 Playoff Predictions-West

1) Oh geez, where do we start?? Firstly, we are very excited about all the matchups here. We couldn't have chosen a better 1st round with all 4 playoff series providing an interesting story line. As has been the case the past few years the West is by far the stronger conference and we will certainly see a very strong team be eliminated in the first round.

  • Vancouver (1) -vs- Chicago (8): Last years Cup champs vs this years Cup favourites. Can't get any better than this. The Blackhawks have had significant turnover and don't appear near as strong as last year, but their nucleus remains and never count out a reigning champ. That said, while the Black hawks scoring seems intact from last season, their team D is not. We believe the Sedins and crew will be able to penetrate the rear guards and Luongo will play well enough to propel the Canucks forward this round. Canucks in 6

  • San Jose (2) vs. No. 7 Los Angeles (7): The battle of California(part 1?) Gary Bettman must be pleased as punch to see all 3 Golden State teams in the playoffs at the same time for the first time. Too bad we don't think though that it will last too long for the Kings. They already were offensive challenged and have lost leading scorer Anze Kopitar as well as Justin Williams(who might play even if not 100%). The Sharks much maligned in recent years for playoff chokes couldn't have chosen a better 1st round opponent to start their Cup run. They should have little problem with the Kings and move on to a much more difficult round 2. Sharks in 5

  • Detroit(3) vs. Phoenix (6): Overshadowing this potentially exciting matchup is the continuing ownership issues in Phoenix. We'll address that(again) in an upcoming post. Its a nice story to see the Yotes come together and have a very successful season. It would be a sad thing to see yet another franchise leave just before it was ready to compete for a Cup(Nordique, Northstars). That said, we don't think the boys from the desert will be good enough quite yet to unseat perennial power house Detroit. RedWings in 5

  • Anaheim (4) vs. Nashville (5) This should be a very close series. The high flying Ducks verses the tough Preds. While Nashville prevailed in 3 of the 4 meetings we don't think this will be cake walk for the Preds by any means. In the end we feel, as it usually does, defense and goaltending win out. Nashville in Pekke Rinne have one of the best in the business. While the explosive line of Richard Trophy winner Perry and Getzlaf will get their goals, they won't get enough of them and not get consistent enough goaltending to prevail. Predators in 6

2011 Playoff Predictions-East

1) Welcome to the NHL's second (real) season. We would argue that there is NO better all around tournament in all of pro sports. Let the games begin! We will go through each series; dissect what the most important factors are, and come up with who will win in how many games. First we will do the East. Followed by the amazingly unpredictable and very powerful West. Enjoy.

  • Capitals(1) vs. NY Rangers(8): REGULAR SEASON SERIES (3-1 Rangers). These are NOT the same Rangers that were playoff novices a couple of seasons ago when these teams last met, and the Rangers fell apart. Not to mention Henrik Lundqvist is one of the best in the business and on top of his game. Keys: Can the Caps play tough playoff hockey? Can the Rangers score enough? There won't be any blowouts here and perhaps a couple OT games deciding the outcome of the series.We don't think the Caps can play a tough, defense first grinding series of games and will (again) wilt in the spring heat of the NHL second season Rangers in 6

  • Philadelphia (2) vs. Buffalo (7) Not a matchup most saw a month ago, but in the last few weeks the Sabres have surged to claim a playoff spot and the Flyers squandered a big lead to fall into 2nd in the East. The Flyers and Sabres have plenty of playoff history. Let's see if the Flyers can overcome their late- season slump to beat the surging Sabres. The Flyers biggest problem is the one that has followed them since Bernie Parent retired, goaltending. How long before they call on recently caled up Michael Leighton? As for Buffalo, is Ryan Miller healthy? Despite that, while the Sabres willl push the BroadStreet Bullies, the Flyers will prevail, but it won't be easy Flyers in 7

  • Canadiens (6) vs. Bruins(3): REGULAR SEASON SERIES (5-1 Bruins) Can't be the post season without these two original 6 squaring off?! They meet for a 5th time in past 8 postseasons. In the past it doesn't seem to matter where either club is in the standings. Despite the positioning we see this as a much closer series than many might predict. There is still likely some bad blood here with the Chara incident still very fresh. Keys: Can Carey Price play up to the expectations and trade save for save with Tim Thomas now that Halak is no longer waiting in the wings? Will the Habs' best defensemen, Andre Markov play? In the end the Bruins should win this old Adams division/Original 6 battle, but not in a cake walk. Bruins in 7

  • Penguins (4) vs Lightning (5): Another intriguing matchup. On paper it shouldn't be close with the Lightning superior fire power, improved defense and Roloson in net, and 87 on the shelf they should prevail, but hold on there. The Pens are one of the best coached teams in the NHL, that even without the best player in the game in the lineup they still were one of the best teams in the East. Can Fleury be the goaie he was for the Pen's Cup run 2 yrs ago? Can Stamkos produce like a superstar when it counts? Overall we think the boys from Pittsburgh will outlast the playoff novices from Florida and grind out a tough 7 game series. Penguins in 7

Monday, April 11, 2011

The Reward for Sucking!

  • 1) The NHL will conduct its Draft Lottery today, Tuesday, April 12th. The lottery will take place in-studio with NHL deputy-commissioner Bill Daly revealing the results live on-air. This will be the 4th time the draft lottery will been aired live on television since the 'Crosby Draft' of 2005, and for only the 5th time in 15 years. The lottery will also be simulcast live on the, NHL Network,

  • 2) The bottom 14 (non-playoff) teams in the NHL will be eligible for the lottery, where odds are weighted by least amount of regular season points. The winning lottery team can move up no more than four spots in the draft and no team can move back more than one.

  • 3) Here's the breakdown: •The five lowest-finishing teams that have a crack at the No. 1 pick: The 30th place team has a 25% chance of winning the drawing, followed by 18.8% for the 29th place team, 14.2% for 28th, 10.7% for 27th and 8.1% for 26th. •The other nine non-play-off teams also have a diminishing chance of winning the lottery, but if they win they just move up four positions in the draft. For example, the 25th place team has a 6.2% chance of winning and would shift to the No. 2 spot in the draft. And, if a 25th to 17th place team wins the lottery, the first overall pick remains with the 30th place team. That's why, when all the math is done, finishing last provides a team with a 48.2% chance of picking first.

  • 4) Here's are a few odd facts: •In 15 draft lotteries since its inception in 1995, the team finishing 30th has been rewarded with the first pick just four times. •The team finishing in third-last has been promoted to the first pick four times, even though the odds of that happening are just 14.2%. •The second to worst finisher has NEVER won the draft lottery! Not only has the second-worst team never won the draft lottery in 12 attempts, but on four occasions it is has been pushed back one drafting spot when the third-worst team won the lottery. If we were betting folks we'd say that this will be the year the second suckiest team wins the lottery.

  • 5) Of course we will renew our objection to the whole lottery process. Our position, though radical and controversial, would eliminate all possible doubt, and no longer reward failure/incompetence. That is do what was done in the 'Crosby sweepstakes' (2005 draft). Have ALL teams' draft order determined equally by a lottery. It would be a great/exciting show, like then, to have every team a chance at the 1st pick, and it eliminates once and for all any chance that teams would be disincentivized from playing their best/best players at all times!

  • 6) It forces GM's/teams to improve by making good decisions, not by tanking a season or two to rebuild and getting good picks. It eliminates ANY notion that teams aren't playing their best each and every night. Also, and as importantly, it stops once and for all the idiotic notion of reward for failure. While we're a it stop the 'loser point' in games. You lose, you get zero points for your effort!

We're Not Dead!!

1) While some might be unhappy to rea, we're fairly sure from the many E-mails we've recived during our hiatus that most are glad we at fauxrumors are back. 2) Now, we're not yet sure if we're up to the multitude of posts we put up before, but we pan to pst here fairly regularly again so stay tuned. 3) Firstly we will post our playoff predictions. Look for them prior to puck drop on Wednesday!! As always, keep it here for all the latest! We are VERY HAPPY TO BE BACK!
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